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2018

06/25

The trillion-chip market for chips can not be cast?

From: Electronic Enthusiast Network

China Industry Information Network disclosed that from 2001 to 2016, the size of China's integrated circuit market increased from 126 billion yuan to about 1.2 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the global market share, but now only the chip import scale exceeds 100 billion annually, and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. Two percent.

This trillion market can not vote? Some people say that the giants are highly competitive and some people say that the risk of investment is too high. However, there are also institutions that have earned enough money. For example, Walden International successively invested in companies such as SMIC, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Minxin Micro, which later became important. Listed company.

My conclusion is: Semiconductor investment is the time.

Why do you say that? We can briefly analyze the flow of talent from the supply side, the funding threshold for industry participation, the evolution of the downstream scene of the chip, and policy support.

Supply side: elite backflow, source of semiconductor development

The semiconductor industry has a high technology threshold, and the entrepreneurial core needs people with professional knowledge and rich industry experience. The return of elites, to a certain extent, gives the source of semiconductor development, thus protecting the investment of anyone.

The elite return is reflected in the following two aspects:

1. Macroscopically, the government uses “thousand-people plans” to surround high-end talents

In 2008, the government began to implement the "Thousand Persons Program." By September 2017, China had divided more than 7,000 experts for the introduction of "Thousand Persons Program" in 13 batches, and introduced 53,900 high-level talents and students studying abroad, of which the proportion of engineering students was Up to 36.54%. Many people returning home with the experience of internationally renowned companies such as Intel often become the backbone of the company.

2. Microscopically, Taiwanese professionals flow to the mainland

Gao Kaiquan, Former Chairman of Huayake Group, joined the Ziguang Group. TSMC’s Jiang Shangyi joined SMIC, Hua Yake Liu Dawei joined Hefei Changxin, and the former general manager Chen Zhengkun joined Fujian Jinhua... These senior professional managers cast their votes with their own choices. . Of course, there are also more people coming from Taiwan to the mainland to join the ranks of entrepreneurs.

Lower financial barriers: Sound industrial support and Fabless make lower investment possible.

The traditional IDM (Integrated Device Manufacture, integrated device manufacturing), like Intel, from the design, manufacturing, packaging and testing to the consumer market, all-inclusive companies, the required technical reserves and initial investment huge, initial investment One billion US dollars, and soon updated, in a few years will have to re-build production lines.

With the establishment of Taiwan Semiconductor Corp. (TSMC) in 1987, the vertical division of labor model has matured. Some semiconductor companies only design this piece and hand over subsequent manufacturing, package testing, and sales IP to professional companies in the industry. This company has no fab (factory), usually called Fabless. This type of Fabless greatly reduces the entry barrier for companies.

In recent years, the industrial division of labor has matured. In the IC manufacturing process, mature companies such as TSMC, SMIC, and GRF are involved; in the packaging and testing process, there are Sun Moonlight, An-Yong, and Changjiang, etc.; in the sales cycle, there are also mature friends such as Youshang and Belong International. the company.

Under this circumstance, Microelectronics Microelectronics can concentrate on the IC design process. As small as a few people will be able to build a team, which greatly reduces the industry's participation threshold. For the funders, the scale of investment and risk comparison IDM era, Has been reduced by several orders of magnitude.

Diversification of application scenarios on the chip brings new opportunities.

In the era of PCs and mobile phones, computer CPUs held up the market value of Intel’s billions of dollars; the mobile phone SOC chip held up the high market value of Qualcomm and Samsung. We can see that the shipment of hundreds of millions of computers and mobile phones has huge effects on upstream chip pull. Giant companies rapidly occupy the market through huge R&D investment and rapid iteration, and the industry concentration continues to increase. The demand gave birth to semiconductor giants such as Intel and Qualcomm.

Different from mobile phones and computers, the demand for the chips of the Internet of Things is "scattered". There will be many millions and ten million levels of demand. These products need chips to satisfy, but many giants have no "small market". The opportunity left for startup companies emerged as a result.

In recent years, smart homes, wearable devices, and industrial internet have become popular terms, and many companies have poured into them. When upstream products come up, upstream chips will naturally be driven. With the development of the Internet of Things, chip application scenarios will become more diversified.

This is destined to be a diversified market, but also requires multiple players to participate, and contending is the norm. A chip company in the upper reaches of the Internet of Things may not be able to sustain a market value of 100 billion U.S. dollars, and billions and tens of billions of dollars of dreams may still exist. It is only necessary to follow the application scenario to find upstream chip companies.

"ZTE Incident" stimulus + policy is positive

On the evening of April 16, 2018, the US Department of Commerce issued an announcement that the U.S. government will ban ZTE's purchase of sensitive products from U.S. companies within the next seven years. A hundred billion-dollar company was instantly frozen and the cost of reconciliation was as high as $1.4 billion.

The ZTE incident sounded the alarm for many companies, spurred the national enterprise to have a dream of "China Core", and Gree and Alibaba started the "China Core" road. At the policy level, the country also gave tangible support.

According to the "Enterprise Income Tax Policy Concerning Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Enterprises," the government has granted semiconductor companies with various degrees of income tax deductions; at the same time, in the "Made in China 2025", China has clearly defined the development of the semiconductor industry as one of its core objectives and has also established 100 billion yuan. The scale of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund can be described as a shotgun. It can be said that the current investment just caught up with the policy dividend.

At this time, there are high-end talents that can be invested, the amount of funds invested is relatively controllable, and there is a market segment that can be separated from the giants, plus policy blessings. So, semiconductor investment is the time.